PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE AMERICAN PRESIDENCY: Trump, Future Contenders and their Chances in the Relevant Future

IF TRUMP CAN MANAGE TO TAME HIS ABNORMAL TENDECIES AND RECKLESS ACTS, and produce results as he promised, his Presidency will survive!

On the hand, if he continues on the present path of outrageous lies, self-sabotage and obvious conflicts of interests, he is doomed to negative drama and failure and may be removed from office in due course of time.  In that scenario, Mike Pence becomes the next President. 

There is another big problem for Trump—he has alienated so many people, groups and individuals in and outside the country.  As a result, his will live the rest of his life in fear of others.  His security details will be the most expensive and extensive in American history and may help bankrupt the nation.

Pence, like Ford, will not win a competitive Presidential race on his own although many conservatives prefer him to Trump as more predictable and politically knowledgeable.  His political base (Christian conservatives and evangelicals) and vision are not sufficiently broad.

In a competitive race, the following types of individuals could become America’s next President after Trump:

1.       David Patraeus (war hero to the right) becomes President depending on the global political condition and the mood of the nation re America’s permanent wars and involvements abroad.  At last, Americans can have their first “Greek President.”

2.       A White Woman—as President at last!  It would not be Hillary.  The Clintons will fade, especially as many feel that Hillary blew it big time even with Trump’s help from the Russians, Putin, Assange, Comey, Guiliani, etc, etc.  Hillary’s fundamental problem was arrogance and inability to galvanize and create excitement.  Arrogance led to the e-mail debacle.  Her put down of coal industry and miners and working class as “deplorable” was amazingly stupid.  And talking about wonen as President, Michelle Obama would have been the next big thing (she is a natural, very smart and Presidential), but America will not be ready for another black President so soon after Obama.

3.       For a White Woman to succeed and win the American Presidency, she must have the following qualities: Tough but not extreme (a war veteran like Sen. Joni Ernst without extreme ideological baggage); humorous (the humor of Rosy O’Donnell without the expletives and vulgarities); a people person quality and a clear consuming vision to be able to create a political movement and following.

4.       The following will NEVER be President:

A)     Barney Sanders:  The Clintonites and the Obamas will never support his second effort nor will they forget that he might have helped to sabotage a possible Clinton Presidency by moving her so far to the left (e.g., on trade [TPP] and related issues.  Sanders supporters did not come out in full force and his vision of expanding the Democratic base failed to materialize for Democrats.  The country will never elect a self-styled “socialist” President.  Sanders remains a socialist and independent and not officially a Democrat.  Strange he fell short on his own idealism.  For example, he never released his tax returns as promised and he bought himself a big mansion while the election campaign was still happening.

B)      Elizabeth Warren will never be President.  Though sincere and well-meaning and honest, she is viewed by so many as too strident, even extreme and not a particularly effective campaigner though she can rouse a crowd.  

C)      There will never be a President Tom Cotton.  Too extreme and uncompromising, even racist.

D)     Paul Ryan will never be President.  He will face huge obstacles from Pence, Trump, Patreaus and the likes.

E)      Carly Fiorina—No real political base and a has been.  Republicans will not give her the nomination over those mentioned above.

F)      Sen. Joni Ernst will never become President so long as she remains so extreme on issues, especially on war and peace, race and many domestic policies.  There will not be another Trump.

So, in a very real sense, the American Presidency is on the balance in the foreseeable future.  Anything can happen.  Indeed!

One final thought—America’s electoral college WILL NOT  be abolished.  Republicans will never allow it.  It is their Trump card.  Democrats are dreaming in techicolor. They have to find a better way to win.

Dr. Sam

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